Bitcoin (BTC) 4-Hour Up or Down — Live Polymarket Chart

Over the last 50 resolved Bitcoin 4-hour windows, 60% closed UP and 40% DOWN; the median move was 117; median volume $21.1k. Across the last 90 days, 261 windows resolved, 52% of them UP.

The live BTC 4-hour window on Polymarket, its price to beat, and how the last 4-hour windows resolved.

> live window

Windowbtc-updown-4h-1789804800
Price to beat81,069
Last price · Binance81,339
Move+270
Book leaderUP 76%
Closes in--:--

Price line: Binance. Dashed line: Polymarket settlement open (crypto-price API).

> last 50 resolved 4h windows

UP / DOWN, last 50
60% / 40%
UP, last 90 days
52% of 261
Current streak
5 × UP
Median move
117
Median volume
$21.1k

> recent results

Resolved Bitcoin 4h windows, newest first. Price to beat is the window open Polymarket settled against (its crypto-price API), and Move is Close minus that open. A dagger marks a window where our own first Chainlink tick differed from it; a dash in Move means the move was smaller than the stored price precision.
Window closePrice to beatCloseMoveResultVolumeMarket
2026-08-21 00:00 UTC72,64673,007+361UP$23.5kOpen
2026-08-20 20:00 UTC72,42672,646+220UP$26.2kOpen
2026-08-20 16:00 UTC71,87072,426+556UP$43.9kOpen
2026-08-20 12:00 UTC69,77171,870+2,100UP$95.3kOpen
2026-08-20 08:00 UTC69,14069,771+631UP$30.4kOpen
2026-08-20 04:00 UTC69,29969,140-159DOWN$24.3kOpen
2026-08-20 00:00 UTC68,40869,299+891UP$53.8kOpen
2026-08-19 20:00 UTC68,51168,408-103DOWN$95.2kOpen
2026-08-19 16:00 UTC64,45468,511+4,056UP$39.5kOpen
2026-08-19 12:00 UTC64,23764,454+218UP$22.0kOpen
2026-08-19 08:00 UTC64,27464,237-37DOWN$20.0kOpen
2026-08-19 04:00 UTC64,68164,274-407DOWN$27.5kOpen
2026-08-19 00:00 UTC64,60664,681+74UP$25.0kOpen
2026-08-18 20:00 UTC64,80564,606-199DOWN$25.0kOpen
2026-08-18 16:00 UTC64,28664,805+520UP$34.1kOpen
2026-08-18 12:00 UTC64,13764,286+149UP$20.7kOpen
2026-08-18 08:00 UTC64,11564,137+21UP$17.8kOpen
2026-08-18 04:00 UTC64,47564,115-360DOWN$21.2kOpen
2026-08-18 00:00 UTC64,25764,475+218UP$23.9kOpen
2026-08-17 20:00 UTC64,13864,257+119UP$70.3kOpen

> other Bitcoin windows

Bitcoin 5mBitcoin 15mBitcoin 1h

> same window, other assets

Ethereum 4h up or downSolana 4h up or downXRP 4h up or downDogecoin 4h up or downBNB 4h up or downHyperliquid 4h up or down

> how Bitcoin 4h windows work

Every Bitcoin 4-hour window opens at 00:00, 04:00, 08:00, 12:00, 16:00 or 20:00 UTC and closes 14,400 seconds later, only 6 windows a day. One window spans as much clock time as 48 of the 5-minute ones, so the price has far more room to travel and come back before the close is taken.

What is a Polymarket up or down market?

> data sources

Bitcoin pages read from Pyth Hermes, Binance, Chainlink, the Polymarket CLOB order book and the Polymarket price-to-beat feed.

Sampling cadence is the same on every timeframe, so a 4-hour window holds roughly 48 times as many recorded points as a 5-minute one.

Open Bitcoin 4-hour in the trading dashboard, or compare what each plan unlocks across all 28 markets.

Open dashboardSee pricing