Bitcoin (BTC) 4-Hour Up or Down — Live Polymarket Chart

Over the last 50 resolved Bitcoin 4-hour windows, 48% closed UP and 52% DOWN; the median move was 251; median volume $9.5k. Across the last 90 days, 526 windows resolved, 52% of them UP.

The live BTC 4-hour window on Polymarket, its price to beat, and how the last 4-hour windows resolved.

> live window

Windowbtc-updown-4h-1793692800
First Chainlink tick—
Last price—
Move vs Chainlink—
Book leader—
Closes in--:--

Waiting for the first prices of this window

Price line: no feed yet. Dashed line: our first Chainlink tick — reference only, not the settlement price.

> last 50 resolved 4h windows

UP / DOWN, last 50
48% / 52%
UP, last 90 days
52% of 526
Current streak
2 × UP
Median move
251
Median volume
$9.5k

> recent results

Resolved Bitcoin 4h windows, newest first. Price to beat is the window open Polymarket settled against (its crypto-price API), and Move is Close minus that open. A dagger marks a window where our own first Chainlink tick differed from it; a dash in Move means the move was smaller than the stored price precision.
Window closePrice to beatCloseMoveResultVolumeMarket
2026-11-01 04:00 UTC77,43877,666+228UP$7.1kOpen
2026-11-01 00:00 UTC77,45877,438—UP$12.6kOpen
2026-10-31 20:00 UTC77,49177,458-33DOWN$7.2kOpen
2026-10-31 16:00 UTC77,49177,491—DOWN$13.9kOpen
2026-10-31 12:00 UTC77,22977,491+261UP$6.2kOpen
2026-10-31 08:00 UTC77,04277,229+187UP$4.7kOpen
2026-10-31 04:00 UTC77,21477,042-171DOWN$11.6kOpen
2026-10-31 00:00 UTC76,77377,214+441UP$4.7kOpen
2026-10-30 20:00 UTC77,48076,773-707DOWN$9.1kOpen
2026-10-30 16:00 UTC77,26377,480+217UP$16.5kOpen
2026-10-30 12:00 UTC78,05277,263-789DOWN$5.7kOpen
2026-10-30 08:00 UTC78,04578,052+7UP$12.8kOpen
2026-10-30 04:00 UTC77,80978,045+236UP$14.9kOpen
2026-10-30 00:00 UTC80,75277,809-2,943DOWN$14.9kOpen
2026-10-29 20:00 UTC81,68180,752-929DOWN$9.5kOpen
2026-10-29 16:00 UTC80,06681,681+1,615UP$13.2kOpen
2026-10-29 12:00 UTC79,75480,066+312UP$6.3kOpen
2026-10-29 08:00 UTC79,74979,754+5UP$3.7kOpen
2026-10-29 04:00 UTC81,25279,749-1,503DOWN$8.3kOpen
2026-10-29 00:00 UTC81,51481,252-262DOWN$5.3kOpen

> other Bitcoin windows

Bitcoin 5mBitcoin 15mBitcoin 1h

> same window, other assets

Ethereum 4h up or downSolana 4h up or downXRP 4h up or downDogecoin 4h up or downBNB 4h up or downHyperliquid 4h up or down

> how Bitcoin 4h windows work

Every Bitcoin 4-hour window opens at 00:00, 04:00, 08:00, 12:00, 16:00 or 20:00 UTC and closes 14,400 seconds later, only 6 windows a day. One window spans as much clock time as 48 of the 5-minute ones, so the price has far more room to travel and come back before the close is taken.

What is a Polymarket up or down market?

> data sources

Bitcoin pages read from Binance, Chainlink, the Polymarket CLOB order book and the Polymarket price-to-beat feed.

Sampling cadence is the same on every timeframe, so a 4-hour window holds roughly 48 times as many recorded points as a 5-minute one.

How prices are recorded and how each window resolves

Open Bitcoin 4-hour in the trading dashboard, or compare what each plan unlocks across all 28 markets.

Open dashboardSee pricing