Bitcoin (BTC) 4-Hour Up or Down — Live Polymarket Chart

Over the last 50 resolved Bitcoin 4-hour windows, 46% closed UP and 54% DOWN; the median move was 222; median volume $14.0k. Across the last 90 days, 160 windows resolved, 52% of them UP.

The live BTC 4-hour window on Polymarket, its price to beat, and how the last 4-hour windows resolved.

> live window

Windowbtc-updown-4h-1785816000
Price to beat63,732
Last price · Binance63,704
Move-28
Book leaderDOWN 83%
Closes in--:--

Price line: Binance. Dashed line: Polymarket settlement open (crypto-price API).

> last 50 resolved 4h windows

UP / DOWN, last 50
46% / 54%
UP, last 90 days
52% of 160
Current streak
1 × UP
Median move
222
Median volume
$14.0k

> recent results

Resolved Bitcoin 4h windows, newest first. Price to beat is the window open Polymarket settled against (its crypto-price API), and Move is Close minus that open. A dagger marks a window where our own first Chainlink tick differed from it; a dash in Move means the move was smaller than the stored price precision.
Window closePrice to beatCloseMoveResultVolumeMarket
2026-08-04 04:00 UTC63,46463,732+268UP$17.4kOpen
2026-08-04 00:00 UTC63,80863,464-343DOWN$10.0kOpen
2026-08-03 20:00 UTC63,62263,808+185UP$32.0kOpen
2026-08-03 16:00 UTC62,48063,622+1,142UP$22.2kOpen
2026-08-03 12:00 UTC62,53762,480-57DOWN$8.5kOpen
2026-08-03 08:00 UTC62,78962,537-252DOWN$9.5kOpen
2026-08-03 04:00 UTC63,50062,789-711DOWN$14.0kOpen
2026-08-03 00:00 UTC63,38563,500+115UP$30.1kOpen
2026-08-02 20:00 UTC63,04363,385+342UP$16.0kOpen
2026-08-02 16:00 UTC62,96763,043+76UP$12.9kOpen
2026-08-02 12:00 UTC63,43962,967-472DOWN$11.6kOpen
2026-08-02 08:00 UTC63,39363,439+46UP$7.1kOpen
2026-08-02 04:00 UTC62,76463,393+629UP$15.0kOpen
2026-08-02 00:00 UTC62,47462,764+290UP$11.8kOpen
2026-08-01 20:00 UTC62,94662,474-472DOWN$13.3kOpen
2026-08-01 16:00 UTC63,01562,946-70DOWN$9.8kOpen
2026-08-01 12:00 UTC62,98863,015+27UP$5.8kOpen
2026-08-01 08:00 UTC62,93962,988+50UP$8.7kOpen
2026-08-01 04:00 UTC62,82562,939+113UP$12.4kOpen
2026-08-01 00:00 UTC62,90462,825-79DOWN$9.2kOpen

> other Bitcoin windows

Bitcoin 5mBitcoin 15mBitcoin 1h

> same window, other assets

Ethereum 4h up or downSolana 4h up or downXRP 4h up or downDogecoin 4h up or downBNB 4h up or downHyperliquid 4h up or down

> how Bitcoin 4h windows work

Every Bitcoin 4-hour window opens at 00:00, 04:00, 08:00, 12:00, 16:00 or 20:00 UTC and closes 14,400 seconds later, only 6 windows a day. One window spans as much clock time as 48 of the 5-minute ones, so the price has far more room to travel and come back before the close is taken.

What is a Polymarket up or down market?

> data sources

Bitcoin pages read from Pyth Hermes, Binance, Chainlink, the Polymarket CLOB order book and the Polymarket price-to-beat feed.

Sampling cadence is the same on every timeframe, so a 4-hour window holds roughly 48 times as many recorded points as a 5-minute one.

Open Bitcoin 4-hour in the trading dashboard, or compare what each plan unlocks across all 28 markets.

Open dashboardSee pricing