Bitcoin (BTC) Up or Down Markets

Bitcoin up or down markets on Polymarket: 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour and 4-hour windows, each with a live price to beat and how recent windows resolved.

Bitcoin 5-minute up or down chartLatest DOWNUP 44% of last 50Median move 33 Bitcoin 15-minute up or down chartLatest DOWNUP 42% of last 50Median move 46 Bitcoin 1-hour up or down chartLatest UPUP 54% of last 50Median move 86 Bitcoin 4-hour up or down chartLatest DOWNUP 44% of last 50Median move 188

> other assets

Ethereum up or down markets Solana up or down markets XRP up or down markets Dogecoin up or down markets BNB up or down markets Hyperliquid up or down markets

> the four windows side by side

Every Bitcoin window settles against the open Polymarket recorded for it. Move figures are medians of the last resolved windows; the 90-day column counts every window retained for that market.
Window	Per day	UP, last 50	UP, 90 days	Median move	Median volume
5m	288	44% of 50	50% of 25,729	33	$4
15m	96	42% of 50	49% of 8,629	46	$161
1h	24	54% of 50	51% of 641	86	$14.7k
4h	6	44% of 50	52% of 161	188	$13.6k

Over the last 90 days the 4-hour window closed UP most often — 52% of 161 resolved windows — while the 15-minute window closed UP 49% of 8,629. Both sit near the coin flip these markets are priced around; the gap is a record, not an edge.

A typical 5-minute Bitcoin window settles 33 away from its open against 188 on the 4-hour window, roughly 5.8× the distance for 48× fewer windows a day.

Median volume is highest on the 1-hour window at $14.7k per window, and the 24 windows it runs each day are where most Bitcoin up or down flow sits.

Read how up or down markets resolve.

Compare plans to see which of the 28 markets each tier unlocks.