Bitcoin (BTC) 15-Minute Up or Down — Live Polymarket Chart

Over the last 50 resolved Bitcoin 15-minute windows, 42% closed UP and 58% DOWN; the median move was 46; median volume $161. Across the last 90 days, 8,625 windows resolved, 49% of them UP.

The live BTC 15-minute window on Polymarket, its price to beat, and how the last 15-minute windows resolved.

> live window

Windowbtc-updown-15m-1785841200
Price to beat63,696
Last price · Binance63,770
Move+74
Book leaderUP 55%
Closes in--:--

Price line: Binance. Dashed line: Polymarket settlement open (crypto-price API).

> last 50 resolved 15m windows

UP / DOWN, last 50
42% / 58%
UP, last 90 days
49% of 8625
Current streak
2 × DOWN
Median move
46
Median volume
$161

> recent results

Resolved Bitcoin 15m windows, newest first. Price to beat is the window open Polymarket settled against (its crypto-price API), and Move is Close minus that open. A dagger marks a window where our own first Chainlink tick differed from it; a dash in Move means the move was smaller than the stored price precision.
Window closePrice to beatCloseMoveResultVolumeMarket
2026-08-04 08:30 UTC63,58063,558-22DOWN—Open
2026-08-04 08:15 UTC63,61863,580-38DOWN—Open
2026-08-04 08:00 UTC63,59663,618+22UP$97Open
2026-08-04 07:45 UTC63,57763,596+19UP$13.3kOpen
2026-08-04 07:30 UTC63,52963,577+48UP—Open
2026-08-04 07:15 UTC63,61163,529-81DOWN—Open
2026-08-04 07:00 UTC63,64563,611-34DOWN$35Open
2026-08-04 06:45 UTC63,70363,645-58DOWN$11.6kOpen
2026-08-04 06:30 UTC63,74363,703-41DOWN$29Open
2026-08-04 06:15 UTC63,75863,743-14DOWN—Open
2026-08-04 06:00 UTC63,80063,758-42DOWN$251Open
2026-08-04 05:45 UTC63,75963,800+42UP$8.6kOpen
2026-08-04 05:30 UTC63,78163,759-22DOWN—Open
2026-08-04 05:15 UTC63,97463,781-193DOWN—Open
2026-08-04 05:00 UTC63,99663,974-22DOWN$165Open
2026-08-04 04:45 UTC63,77263,996+224UP$8.0kOpen
2026-08-04 04:30 UTC63,74363,772+30UP—Open
2026-08-04 04:15 UTC63,73263,743+11UP—Open
2026-08-04 04:00 UTC63,77363,732-41DOWN$152Open
2026-08-04 03:45 UTC63,71563,773+58UP$7.3kOpen

> other Bitcoin windows

Bitcoin 5mBitcoin 1hBitcoin 4h

> same window, other assets

Ethereum 15m up or downSolana 15m up or downXRP 15m up or downDogecoin 15m up or downBNB 15m up or downHyperliquid 15m up or down

> how Bitcoin 15m windows work

Every Bitcoin 15-minute window opens at :00, :15, :30 or :45 UTC and closes 900 seconds later, 96 windows a day with no gap between them. The price to beat is the spot price at the quarter-hour boundary and does not move once the window is open.

What is a Polymarket up or down market?

> data sources

Bitcoin pages read from Pyth Hermes, Binance, Chainlink, the Polymarket CLOB order book and the Polymarket price-to-beat feed.

Sampling cadence is the same on every timeframe, so a 15-minute window holds roughly 3 times as many recorded points as a 5-minute one.

Open Bitcoin 15-minute in the trading dashboard, or compare what each plan unlocks across all 28 markets.

Open dashboardSee pricing