Bitcoin (BTC) 15-Minute Up or Down — Live Polymarket Chart

Over the last 50 resolved Bitcoin 15-minute windows, 58% closed UP and 42% DOWN; the median move was 125; median volume $577. Across the last 90 days, 5,827 windows resolved, 49% of them UP.

The live BTC 15-minute window on Polymarket, its price to beat, and how the last 15-minute windows resolved.

> live window

Windowbtc-updown-15m-1789807500
Price to beat81,292
Last price · Binance81,345
Move+53
Book leaderUP 68%
Closes in--:--

Price line: Binance. Dashed line: Polymarket settlement open (crypto-price API).

> last 50 resolved 15m windows

UP / DOWN, last 50
58% / 42%
UP, last 90 days
49% of 5827
Current streak
1 × DOWN
Median move
125
Median volume
$577

> recent results

Resolved Bitcoin 15m windows, newest first. Price to beat is the window open Polymarket settled against (its crypto-price API), and Move is Close minus that open. A dagger marks a window where our own first Chainlink tick differed from it; a dash in Move means the move was smaller than the stored price precision.
Window closePrice to beatCloseMoveResultVolumeMarket
2026-08-21 02:45 UTC74,94074,681-260DOWN$289Open
2026-08-21 02:30 UTC74,84074,940+100UP$590Open
2026-08-21 02:15 UTC75,10074,840-260DOWN$1.5kOpen
2026-08-21 02:00 UTC74,70975,100+391UP$391Open
2026-08-21 01:45 UTC74,70174,709+8UP$769Open
2026-08-21 01:30 UTC73,95774,701+744UP$616Open
2026-08-21 01:15 UTC73,68273,957+275UP$722Open
2026-08-21 01:00 UTC73,66373,682+18UP$830Open
2026-08-21 00:45 UTC73,69173,663-28DOWN$1.9kOpen
2026-08-21 00:30 UTC73,47073,691+221UP$1.2kOpen
2026-08-21 00:15 UTC73,007†73,470+464UP$265Open
2026-08-21 00:00 UTC73,08773,007-80DOWN$321Open
2026-08-20 23:45 UTC73,18773,087-100DOWN$1.9kOpen
2026-08-20 23:30 UTC72,90673,187+280UP$161Open
2026-08-20 23:15 UTC72,65672,906+250UP$425Open
2026-08-20 23:00 UTC72,66972,656-13DOWN$276Open
2026-08-20 22:45 UTC72,77272,669-103DOWN$2.5kOpen
2026-08-20 22:30 UTC72,59172,772+181UP$228Open
2026-08-20 22:15 UTC72,72172,591-130DOWN$165Open
2026-08-20 22:00 UTC72,71672,721+5UP$640Open

> other Bitcoin windows

Bitcoin 5mBitcoin 1hBitcoin 4h

> same window, other assets

Ethereum 15m up or downSolana 15m up or downXRP 15m up or downDogecoin 15m up or downBNB 15m up or downHyperliquid 15m up or down

> how Bitcoin 15m windows work

Every Bitcoin 15-minute window opens at :00, :15, :30 or :45 UTC and closes 900 seconds later, 96 windows a day with no gap between them. The price to beat is the spot price at the quarter-hour boundary and does not move once the window is open.

What is a Polymarket up or down market?

> data sources

Bitcoin pages read from Pyth Hermes, Binance, Chainlink, the Polymarket CLOB order book and the Polymarket price-to-beat feed.

Sampling cadence is the same on every timeframe, so a 15-minute window holds roughly 3 times as many recorded points as a 5-minute one.

Open Bitcoin 15-minute in the trading dashboard, or compare what each plan unlocks across all 28 markets.

Open dashboardSee pricing