Bitcoin (BTC) 15-Minute Up or Down — Live Polymarket Chart

Over the last 50 resolved Bitcoin 15-minute windows, 48% closed UP and 52% DOWN; the median move was 79; median volume $162. Across the last 90 days, 8,629 windows resolved, 50% of them UP.

The live BTC 15-minute window on Polymarket, its price to beat, and how the last 15-minute windows resolved.

> live window

Windowbtc-updown-15m-1793703600
Price to beat77,007
Last price · Binance77,235
Move+228
Book leaderUP 98%
Closes in--:--

Price line: Binance. Dashed line: Polymarket settlement open (crypto-price API).

> last 50 resolved 15m windows

UP / DOWN, last 50
48% / 52%
UP, last 90 days
50% of 8629
Current streak
3 × UP
Median move
79
Median volume
$162

> recent results

Resolved Bitcoin 15m windows, newest first. Price to beat is the window open Polymarket settled against (its crypto-price API), and Move is Close minus that open. A dagger marks a window where our own first Chainlink tick differed from it; a dash in Move means the move was smaller than the stored price precision.
Window closePrice to beatCloseMoveResultVolumeMarket
2026-11-03 11:00 UTC76,94377,007+64UP$39Open
2026-11-03 10:45 UTC76,92576,943+18UP$93Open
2026-11-03 10:30 UTC76,90476,925+21UP$583Open
2026-11-03 10:15 UTC76,94676,904-42DOWN$234Open
2026-11-03 10:00 UTC76,91476,946+32UP$1.3kOpen
2026-11-03 09:45 UTC76,78076,914+134UP$121Open
2026-11-03 09:30 UTC76,65376,780+128UP$625Open
2026-11-03 09:15 UTC76,50576,653+148UP$91Open
2026-11-03 09:00 UTC76,41476,505+91UP$603Open
2026-11-03 08:45 UTC76,52676,414-112DOWN$129Open
2026-11-03 08:30 UTC76,68876,526-162DOWN$603Open
2026-11-03 08:15 UTC76,69276,688-4DOWN$70Open
2026-11-03 08:00 UTC76,71576,692-23DOWN$1.1kOpen
2026-11-03 07:45 UTC76,75976,715-44DOWN$101Open
2026-11-03 07:30 UTC76,45576,759+304UP$299Open
2026-11-03 07:15 UTC76,45876,455—UP$111Open
2026-11-03 07:00 UTC76,54176,458-83DOWN$165Open
2026-11-03 06:45 UTC76,59076,541—UP$127Open
2026-11-03 06:30 UTC76,32176,590+269UP$535Open
2026-11-03 06:15 UTC76,52576,321-204DOWN$201Open

> other Bitcoin windows

Bitcoin 5mBitcoin 1hBitcoin 4h

> same window, other assets

Ethereum 15m up or downSolana 15m up or downXRP 15m up or downDogecoin 15m up or downBNB 15m up or downHyperliquid 15m up or down

> how Bitcoin 15m windows work

Every Bitcoin 15-minute window opens at :00, :15, :30 or :45 UTC and closes 900 seconds later, 96 windows a day with no gap between them. The price to beat is the settlement price at the quarter-hour boundary and does not move once the window is open.

What is a Polymarket up or down market?

> data sources

Bitcoin pages read from Binance, Chainlink, the Polymarket CLOB order book and the Polymarket price-to-beat feed.

Sampling cadence is the same on every timeframe, so a 15-minute window holds roughly 3 times as many recorded points as a 5-minute one.

How prices are recorded and how each window resolves

Open Bitcoin 15-minute in the trading dashboard, or compare what each plan unlocks across all 28 markets.

Open dashboardSee pricing