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"exclusionRate": 0.0938, "deciles": [ { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.1, "n": 1280, "meanImplied": 0.0078, "observedUp": 82, "rate": 0.0641, "ciLo": 0.0519, "ciHi": 0.0788 }, { "lo": 0.1, "hi": 0.2, "n": 36, "meanImplied": 0.1303, "observedUp": 9, "rate": 0.25, "ciLo": 0.1375, "ciHi": 0.4107 }, { "lo": 0.2, "hi": 0.3, "n": 14, "meanImplied": 0.241, "observedUp": 7, "rate": 0.5, "ciLo": 0.268, "ciHi": 0.732 }, { "lo": 0.3, "hi": 0.4, "n": 13, "meanImplied": 0.3516, "observedUp": 3, "rate": 0.2308, "ciLo": 0.0818, "ciHi": 0.5026 }, { "lo": 0.4, "hi": 0.5, "n": 13, "meanImplied": 0.4436, "observedUp": 6, "rate": 0.4615, "ciLo": 0.2321, "ciHi": 0.7086 }, { "lo": 0.5, "hi": 0.6, "n": 17, "meanImplied": 0.5548, "observedUp": 6, "rate": 0.3529, "ciLo": 0.1731, "ciHi": 0.587 }, { "lo": 0.6, "hi": 0.7, "n": 14, "meanImplied": 0.6472, "observedUp": 4, "rate": 0.2857, "ciLo": 0.1172, "ciHi": 0.5465 }, { "lo": 0.7, "hi": 0.8, "n": 17, "meanImplied": 0.7633, "observedUp": 12, "rate": 0.7059, "ciLo": 0.4687, "ciHi": 0.8672 }, { "lo": 0.8, "hi": 0.9, "n": 35, "meanImplied": 0.8695, "observedUp": 26, "rate": 0.7429, "ciLo": 0.5793, "ciHi": 0.8584 }, { "lo": 0.9, "hi": 1, "n": 1295, "meanImplied": 0.9921, "observedUp": 1204, "rate": 0.9297, "ciLo": 0.9145, "ciHi": 0.9424 } ], "favourite": [ { "lo": 0.5, "hi": 0.6, "n": 29, "meanFavourite": 0.554, "favouriteWins": 12, "rate": 0.4138, "ciLo": 0.2551, "ciHi": 0.5926 }, { "lo": 0.6, "hi": 0.7, "n": 26, "meanFavourite": 0.642, "favouriteWins": 14, "rate": 0.5385, "ciLo": 0.3546, "ciHi": 0.7124 }, { "lo": 0.7, "hi": 0.8, "n": 31, "meanFavourite": 0.7549, "favouriteWins": 18, "rate": 0.5806, "ciLo": 0.4077, "ciHi": 0.7358 }, { "lo": 0.8, "hi": 0.9, "n": 67, "meanFavourite": 0.8648, "favouriteWins": 50, "rate": 0.7463, "ciLo": 0.6307, "ciHi": 0.8351 }, { "lo": 0.9, "hi": 1, "n": 2581, "meanFavourite": 0.9919, "favouriteWins": 2407, "rate": 0.9326, "ciLo": 0.9223, "ciHi": 0.9416 } ] }, "4h": { "n": 681, "excluded": 75, "exclusionRate": 0.0992, "deciles": [ { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.1, "n": 307, "meanImplied": 0.0072, "observedUp": 2, "rate": 0.0065, "ciLo": 0.0018, "ciHi": 0.0234 }, { "lo": 0.1, "hi": 0.2, "n": 12, "meanImplied": 0.1333, "observedUp": 0, "rate": 0, "ciLo": 0, "ciHi": 0.2425 }, { "lo": 0.2, "hi": 0.3, "n": 2, "meanImplied": 0.26, "observedUp": 0, "rate": 0, "ciLo": 0, "ciHi": 0.6576 }, { "lo": 0.3, "hi": 0.4, "n": 0, "meanImplied": null, "observedUp": 0, "rate": null, "ciLo": null, "ciHi": null }, { "lo": 0.4, "hi": 0.5, "n": 3, "meanImplied": 0.43, "observedUp": 1, "rate": 0.3333, "ciLo": 0.0615, "ciHi": 0.7923 }, { "lo": 0.5, "hi": 0.6, "n": 0, "meanImplied": null, "observedUp": 0, "rate": null, "ciLo": null, "ciHi": null }, { "lo": 0.6, "hi": 0.7, "n": 1, "meanImplied": 0.665, "observedUp": 1, "rate": 1, "ciLo": 0.2065, "ciHi": 1 }, { "lo": 0.7, "hi": 0.8, "n": 0, "meanImplied": null, "observedUp": 0, "rate": null, "ciLo": null, "ciHi": null }, { "lo": 0.8, "hi": 0.9, "n": 5, "meanImplied": 0.8534, "observedUp": 4, "rate": 0.8, "ciLo": 0.3755, "ciHi": 0.9638 }, { "lo": 0.9, "hi": 1, "n": 351, "meanImplied": 0.992, "observedUp": 349, "rate": 0.9943, "ciLo": 0.9795, "ciHi": 0.9984 } ], "favourite": [ { "lo": 0.5, "hi": 0.6, "n": 3, "meanFavourite": 0.57, "favouriteWins": 2, "rate": 0.6667, "ciLo": 0.2077, "ciHi": 0.9385 }, { "lo": 0.6, "hi": 0.7, "n": 1, "meanFavourite": 0.665, "favouriteWins": 1, "rate": 1, "ciLo": 0.2065, "ciHi": 1 }, { "lo": 0.7, "hi": 0.8, "n": 2, "meanFavourite": 0.74, "favouriteWins": 2, "rate": 1, "ciLo": 0.3424, "ciHi": 1 }, { "lo": 0.8, "hi": 0.9, "n": 15, "meanFavourite": 0.8578, "favouriteWins": 14, "rate": 0.9333, "ciLo": 0.7018, "ciHi": 0.9881 }, { "lo": 0.9, "hi": 1, "n": 660, "meanFavourite": 0.9921, "favouriteWins": 656, "rate": 0.9939, "ciLo": 0.9845, "ciHi": 0.9976 } ] } } } }, "favouriteLost": { "threshold": 0.9, "byCheckpoint": { "t-60s": { "all": { "n": 7083, "lost": 211, "rate": 0.0298, "ciLo": 0.0261, "ciHi": 0.034 }, "byTimeframe": { "5m": { "n": 1513, "lost": 42, "rate": 0.0278, "ciLo": 0.0206, "ciHi": 0.0373 }, "15m": { "n": 2516, "lost": 27, "rate": 0.0107, "ciLo": 0.0074, "ciHi": 0.0156 }, "1h": { "n": 2413, "lost": 139, "rate": 0.0576, "ciLo": 0.049, "ciHi": 0.0676 }, "4h": { "n": 641, "lost": 3, "rate": 0.0047, "ciLo": 0.0016, "ciHi": 0.0137 } }, "byAsset": { "btc": { "n": 1063, "lost": 27, "rate": 0.0254, "ciLo": 0.0175, "ciHi": 0.0367 }, "eth": { "n": 1117, "lost": 42, "rate": 0.0376, "ciLo": 0.0279, "ciHi": 0.0504 }, "sol": { "n": 1044, "lost": 28, "rate": 0.0268, "ciLo": 0.0186, "ciHi": 0.0385 }, "xrp": { "n": 1048, "lost": 37, "rate": 0.0353, "ciLo": 0.0257, "ciHi": 0.0483 }, "doge": { "n": 1087, "lost": 31, "rate": 0.0285, "ciLo": 0.0202, "ciHi": 0.0402 }, "bnb": { "n": 1026, "lost": 34, "rate": 0.0331, "ciLo": 0.0238, "ciHi": 0.0459 }, "hype": { "n": 698, "lost": 12, "rate": 0.0172, "ciLo": 0.0099, "ciHi": 0.0298 } } }, "t-30s": { "all": { "n": 8085, "lost": 228, "rate": 0.0282, "ciLo": 0.0248, "ciHi": 0.032 }, "byTimeframe": { "5m": { "n": 2109, "lost": 44, "rate": 0.0209, "ciLo": 0.0156, "ciHi": 0.0279 }, "15m": { "n": 2815, "lost": 22, "rate": 0.0078, "ciLo": 0.0052, "ciHi": 0.0118 }, "1h": { "n": 2506, "lost": 158, "rate": 0.063, "ciLo": 0.0542, "ciHi": 0.0732 }, "4h": { "n": 655, "lost": 4, "rate": 0.0061, "ciLo": 0.0024, "ciHi": 0.0156 } } }, "t-10s": { "all": { "n": 8848, "lost": 236, "rate": 0.0267, "ciLo": 0.0235, "ciHi": 0.0302 }, "byTimeframe": { "5m": { "n": 2564, "lost": 33, "rate": 0.0129, "ciLo": 0.0092, "ciHi": 0.018 }, "15m": { "n": 3043, "lost": 25, "rate": 0.0082, "ciLo": 0.0056, "ciHi": 0.0121 }, "1h": { "n": 2581, "lost": 174, "rate": 0.0674, "ciLo": 0.0584, "ciHi": 0.0777 }, "4h": { "n": 660, "lost": 4, "rate": 0.0061, "ciLo": 0.0024, "ciHi": 0.0155 } } } } }, "capturedVsSettlement": { "definition": "Difference between the boundary Chainlink observation (tick_prices.ptb_captured, our own first reading after the window opens) and the settlement open Polymarket resolves against (first non-null tick_prices.ptb_api in the window), in basis points of the settlement open. medianBps / p95Bps / over5bpsRate are absolute; signedMedianBps and capturedAboveApiRate (share of windows where captured exceeds the settlement open) carry the direction.", "sample": { "windowsPerMarket": 200, "openScanSeconds": 120, "windowsAttempted": 4956, "windowsWithBothValues": 4238, "firstCloseIso": "2026-07-08T16:00:00.000Z", "lastCloseIso": "2026-07-26T14:15:00.000Z", "note": "HYPE has no Chainlink feed and therefore no captured value; it contributes no rows." }, "byTimeframe": { "5m": { "n": 1200, "medianBps": 0.01, "p95Bps": 0.75, "over5bpsRate": 0.0058, "signedMedianBps": 0, "capturedAboveApiRate": 0.3592 }, "15m": { "n": 1200, "medianBps": 0, "p95Bps": 0.77, "over5bpsRate": 0.0058, "signedMedianBps": 0, "capturedAboveApiRate": 0.3008 }, "1h": { "n": 1196, "medianBps": 7.67, "p95Bps": 10.42, "over5bpsRate": 0.9406, "signedMedianBps": -7.67, "capturedAboveApiRate": 0 }, "4h": { "n": 642, "medianBps": 0, "p95Bps": 0.81, "over5bpsRate": 0.0016, "signedMedianBps": 0, "capturedAboveApiRate": 0.2352 } }, "byMarket": { "btc-5m": { "n": 200, "medianBps": 0.02, "p95Bps": 0.48, "over5bpsRate": 0, "signedMedianBps": 0, "capturedAboveApiRate": 0.385 }, "btc-15m": { "n": 200, "medianBps": 0, "p95Bps": 0.47, "over5bpsRate": 0.005, "signedMedianBps": 0, "capturedAboveApiRate": 0.3 }, "btc-1h": { "n": 199, "medianBps": 7.41, "p95Bps": 10.25, "over5bpsRate": 0.9497, "signedMedianBps": -7.41, "capturedAboveApiRate": 0 }, "btc-4h": { "n": 107, "medianBps": 0, "p95Bps": 0.48, "over5bpsRate": 0, "signedMedianBps": 0, "capturedAboveApiRate": 0.215 }, "eth-5m": { "n": 200, "medianBps": 0.01, "p95Bps": 0.43, "over5bpsRate": 0.005, "signedMedianBps": 0, "capturedAboveApiRate": 0.355 }, "eth-15m": { "n": 200, "medianBps": 0.01, "p95Bps": 0.66, "over5bpsRate": 0.01, "signedMedianBps": 0, "capturedAboveApiRate": 0.26 }, "eth-1h": { "n": 199, "medianBps": 7.69, "p95Bps": 9.91, "over5bpsRate": 0.9698, "signedMedianBps": -7.69, "capturedAboveApiRate": 0 }, "eth-4h": { "n": 107, "medianBps": 0, "p95Bps": 0.92, "over5bpsRate": 0, "signedMedianBps": 0, "capturedAboveApiRate": 0.2804 }, "sol-5m": { "n": 200, "medianBps": 0, "p95Bps": 0.79, "over5bpsRate": 0.01, "signedMedianBps": 0, "capturedAboveApiRate": 0.36 }, "sol-15m": { "n": 200, "medianBps": 0, "p95Bps": 0.73, "over5bpsRate": 0.005, "signedMedianBps": 0, "capturedAboveApiRate": 0.33 }, "sol-1h": { "n": 199, "medianBps": 7.69, "p95Bps": 10.53, "over5bpsRate": 0.9095, "signedMedianBps": -7.69, "capturedAboveApiRate": 0 }, "sol-4h": { "n": 107, "medianBps": 0, "p95Bps": 0.55, "over5bpsRate": 0, "signedMedianBps": 0, "capturedAboveApiRate": 0.2243 }, "xrp-5m": { "n": 200, "medianBps": 0, "p95Bps": 0.42, "over5bpsRate": 0, "signedMedianBps": 0, "capturedAboveApiRate": 0.305 }, "xrp-15m": { "n": 200, "medianBps": 0, "p95Bps": 0.8, "over5bpsRate": 0.01, "signedMedianBps": 0, "capturedAboveApiRate": 0.285 }, "xrp-1h": { "n": 200, "medianBps": 7.38, "p95Bps": 10.52, "over5bpsRate": 0.93, "signedMedianBps": -7.38, "capturedAboveApiRate": 0 }, "xrp-4h": { "n": 107, "medianBps": 0, "p95Bps": 0.42, "over5bpsRate": 0.0093, "signedMedianBps": 0, "capturedAboveApiRate": 0.2056 }, "doge-5m": { "n": 200, "medianBps": 0.01, "p95Bps": 1.5, "over5bpsRate": 0.015, "signedMedianBps": 0, "capturedAboveApiRate": 0.485 }, "doge-15m": { "n": 200, "medianBps": 0.01, "p95Bps": 1.48, "over5bpsRate": 0.005, "signedMedianBps": 0, "capturedAboveApiRate": 0.395 }, "doge-1h": { "n": 199, "medianBps": 8, "p95Bps": 10.84, "over5bpsRate": 0.9296, "signedMedianBps": -8, "capturedAboveApiRate": 0 }, "doge-4h": { "n": 107, "medianBps": 0, "p95Bps": 0.55, "over5bpsRate": 0, "signedMedianBps": 0, "capturedAboveApiRate": 0.3271 }, "bnb-5m": { "n": 200, "medianBps": 0, "p95Bps": 0.51, "over5bpsRate": 0.005, "signedMedianBps": 0, "capturedAboveApiRate": 0.265 }, "bnb-15m": { "n": 200, "medianBps": 0, "p95Bps": 0.51, "over5bpsRate": 0, "signedMedianBps": 0, "capturedAboveApiRate": 0.235 }, "bnb-1h": { "n": 200, "medianBps": 7.7, "p95Bps": 10.34, "over5bpsRate": 0.955, "signedMedianBps": -7.7, "capturedAboveApiRate": 0 }, "bnb-4h": { "n": 107, "medianBps": 0, "p95Bps": 1.39, "over5bpsRate": 0, "signedMedianBps": 0, "capturedAboveApiRate": 0.1589 } }, "oneHourByAsset": { "btc": { "n": 199, "medianBps": 7.41, "p95Bps": 10.25, "over5bpsRate": 0.9497, "signedMedianBps": -7.41, "capturedAboveApiRate": 0 }, "eth": { "n": 199, "medianBps": 7.69, "p95Bps": 9.91, "over5bpsRate": 0.9698, "signedMedianBps": -7.69, "capturedAboveApiRate": 0 }, "sol": { "n": 199, "medianBps": 7.69, "p95Bps": 10.53, "over5bpsRate": 0.9095, "signedMedianBps": -7.69, "capturedAboveApiRate": 0 }, "xrp": { "n": 200, "medianBps": 7.38, "p95Bps": 10.52, "over5bpsRate": 0.93, "signedMedianBps": -7.38, "capturedAboveApiRate": 0 }, "doge": { "n": 199, "medianBps": 8, "p95Bps": 10.84, "over5bpsRate": 0.9296, "signedMedianBps": -8, "capturedAboveApiRate": 0 }, "bnb": { "n": 200, "medianBps": 7.7, "p95Bps": 10.34, "over5bpsRate": 0.955, "signedMedianBps": -7.7, "capturedAboveApiRate": 0 } } }, "replays": [ { "slug": "eth-updown-5m-1785043800", "asset": "eth", "timeframe": "5m", "openIso": "2026-07-26T05:30:00.000Z", "closeIso": "2026-07-26T05:35:00.000Z", "outcome": "UP", "settlementOpen": 1883.20125318, "closePrice": 1883.42, "impliedUpAt": { "t-60s": 0.055, "t-30s": 0.895, "t-10s": 0.89 }, "priceSource": "binance_price, else pyth_price, else chainlink_price. Not the settlement feed: settlementOpen and closePrice come from the price-to-beat feed and can sit a few basis points off this path.", "points": 240, "series": [ { "ts": 1, "price": 1884.89, "impliedUpMid": null }, { "ts": 3, "price": 1884.89, "impliedUpMid": 0.55 }, { "ts": 4, "price": 1884.89, "impliedUpMid": 0.52 }, { "ts": 5, "price": 1884.89, "impliedUpMid": 0.475 }, { "ts": 6, "price": 1884.89, "impliedUpMid": 0.53 }, { "ts": 7, "price": 1884.9, "impliedUpMid": 0.54 }, { "ts": 8, "price": 1884.89, "impliedUpMid": 0.525 }, { "ts": 9, "price": 1884.89, "impliedUpMid": 0.525 }, { "ts": 10, "price": 1884.87, "impliedUpMid": 0.505 }, { "ts": 11, "price": 1884.87, "impliedUpMid": 0.505 }, { "ts": 12, "price": 1884.61, "impliedUpMid": 0.395 }, { "ts": 13, "price": 1884.61, "impliedUpMid": 0.405 }, { "ts": 14, "price": 1884.61, "impliedUpMid": 0.415 }, { "ts": 15, "price": 1884.79, "impliedUpMid": 0.535 }, { "ts": 16, "price": 1884.79, "impliedUpMid": 0.535 }, { "ts": 18, "price": 1884.79, "impliedUpMid": 0.535 }, { "ts": 19, "price": 1884.79, "impliedUpMid": 0.555 }, { "ts": 20, "price": 1884.79, "impliedUpMid": 0.555 }, { "ts": 21, "price": 1884.79, "impliedUpMid": 0.555 }, { "ts": 22, "price": 1884.79, "impliedUpMid": 0.545 }, { "ts": 24, "price": 1884.79, "impliedUpMid": 0.525 }, { "ts": 26, "price": 1884.79, "impliedUpMid": 0.525 }, { "ts": 27, "price": 1884.79, "impliedUpMid": 0.525 }, { "ts": 28, "price": 1884.79, "impliedUpMid": 0.495 }, { "ts": 29, "price": 1884.79, "impliedUpMid": 0.495 }, { "ts": 30, "price": 1884.79, "impliedUpMid": 0.495 }, { "ts": 32, "price": 1884.79, "impliedUpMid": 0.495 }, { "ts": 33, "price": 1884.78, "impliedUpMid": 0.495 }, { "ts": 34, "price": 1884.78, "impliedUpMid": 0.495 }, { "ts": 35, "price": 1884.79, "impliedUpMid": 0.445 }, { "ts": 37, "price": 1884.79, "impliedUpMid": 0.475 }, { "ts": 38, "price": 1884.79, "impliedUpMid": 0.515 }, { "ts": 39, "price": 1884.79, "impliedUpMid": 0.495 }, { "ts": 40, "price": 1884.79, 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"queryErrors": 0 }, "hype-4h": { "windows": 108, "firstWindowIso": "2026-07-08T12:00:00.000Z", "firstCloseIso": "2026-07-08T16:00:00.000Z", "lastCloseIso": "2026-07-26T12:00:00.000Z", "quoteCoverage": { "t-60s": 0.417, "t-30s": 0.444, "t-10s": 0.426 }, "queryErrors": 0 } } }, "limitations": [ "Outcome frequencies are a record of what happened. They exclude the bid/ask spread, fees and slippage, so they are not a statement about profitability.", "A checkpoint is excluded for a window when the last recorded two-sided quote is more than 20s old, when the book is one-sided, or when the spread exceeds 0.2. Exclusion rates are reported per checkpoint and per market.", "Window close prices are stored at 2 decimals. For XRP (close ~ 0.5) and especially DOGE (close ~ 0.07) that precision cannot represent a normal short-window move, so those markets contribute noise to any price-difference measure. Outcomes themselves come from the resolution recorded at settlement.", "HYPE has no Chainlink or Binance feed, so it has no captured open and is absent from the captured-vs-settlement comparison.", "The sample is the most recent 500 resolved windows per market at build time, not the full archive. Recorded price series are retained for 90 days.", "Windows for different assets cover the same clock intervals, and concurrent crypto moves are correlated, so any cell that pools assets has an effective sample well below its N. Wilson intervals on pooled cells assume independent windows and are therefore optimistic; per-market cells are the ones to read.", "Because the sample is the most recent 500 windows per market, the shorter timeframes cover far less calendar time than the longer ones. Per-timeframe date ranges are in coverage.byMarket and are published next to the base-rate table.", "Quotes are recorded by our own collector at roughly 1.5 observations per second. A checkpoint mid is the last observation at or before that instant, not the exact book state at that instant." ] }